Fall will officially kick off later this month, but harvest is already in full swing in many parts of the country. Too many farmers, ranchers and their families fall victim to accidents during harvest that might have been easily prevented with a little extra time and caution, so please stay alert during harvest this year. Slow down, be aware of your surroundings and take a break or trade off with someone if you are starting to feel tired. We all know it is a busy and important time of year, but there is nothing more important than your life.
Back on the livestock side of things, Rabobank has released its third quarter outlook for 2022. The global beef market remains strong. However, that could change depending on consumers pocketbooks for the rest of the year. Most beef retail prices continued upward in Quarter 2 or remained steady. Although Q2 prices did not increase much compared to the first quarter, most are between 5 and 11 percent higher than Q2 of 2021.
Due to the widespread drought, calves and feeder cattle have moved into feedlots at a faster pace in the first half this year. The July 1 on-feed inventories were near year-ago levels at 13.4 million head, but reduced supplies outside of feedlots by 1 million head. As a result, Rabobank expects a more noticeable shortfall of market-ready cattle by winter.
The beef cow herd has liquidated at a record-high pace since early in 2022. Cow slaughter increased to 12.7% for the first half of the year, and the 4 million head forecast for annual slaughter is nearly 500,000 head above last year. By the end of July, 54% of the beef herd was facing moderate to severe drought levels. With a La Nina weather pattern forecast into the winter, the downtrend in cow numbers, feeder cattle supplies and ultimately beef production could mirror the 2014 cycle lows by 2024 or 2025.
Regardless of if you are weaning calves, fall calving or chopping silage, the BioZyme Family wishes you a safe and happy fall!